It seems Al-Shabab Militants are changing sides because of heavy losses. Those who still fight with them are running away in small groups and they've lost weapons and personnel. The Somali government believe that some 500 al-Shabab fighters have defected to the government side. Whilst the African Union military force said AU commanders are seeing more defections than ever. This indicates that Al-Shabab is losing cohesion, losing command and control.
The strength of al-Shabab is not precisely known. Though Abshir Ali Mohamed estimated that the insurgents have 7,000 to 8,000 fighters. Most observers put the figure at 4,000 to 6,000. Though Al-Shabab has seen defections before most notabbly in 2009 when several leaders defected to the government but they still managed to maintain and function. So why the hope from its opposition this time things could be different ?
Well coupled with the fact that there has been larged scale defections of late.There may be other internal reasosns for Al Shabab's perceived decline. Over the years there have been increasing numbers of foreign militants who have come into Somalia to join Al-Shabab and fight alongside them. However these fighters who are said to provide the ideological backbone of the group have been accused of creating a heirarchy amongst the militia which has caused rifts. There has also been the rejection by Al-Shabab leaders of Khat (brightly coloured leaves ) sold in markets all over the country. These leaves that are chewed and act as a stimulant has become a national obsession. So it would not have gone down well with the local population when Al-Shabab branded Khat "haram", (forbidden), and banned it and perhaps at the same time alienating a number of supporters.
Somalia has not seen peace since 1991, when clan-based warlords toppled dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and then turned on each other. The rise of Islamist militants over the last decade fueled even more fighting. Should Al-Shabab crumble by way of mass defection to the other side than there is a strong possibility Somalia will get some of the peace and stability it so badly needs.
Ben (Kwesi)
Twitter: @kwesitheauthor | @creativafr